zenilvana
禪涅槃(선열반)(zenilvana)
California 블로거

Blog Open 09.25.2015

전체     65384
오늘방문     194
오늘댓글     1
오늘 스크랩     0
친구     0 명
  친구 새글
등록된 친구가 없습니다.
  달력
 
기름값이 앞으로 2년 더 싸 있을 것이다
03/04/2016 14:12
조회  541   |  추천   5   |  스크랩   0
IP 76.xx.xx.81
오늘은 기분이 은근히 좋은 날이다. 지난 1월 14일에 SID라는 부라질의 광산회사가 $0.79전까지 떨어졌길래 1,000주를 사두었다가 오늘 $1.95에 팔아서 $1,160불을 챙겼다. 1 달하고 19일 만에 이 정도 벌었으면 괜찮은 장사가 아닌가?

늘 그래 한다면 얼마나 큰 돈에 시달리겠는가 마는 가물에 콩 나듯 하는 거래라고 봐주시면 크게 부러워 할 이유가 없다고 해야 하겄지. 더 열심히 하면 그런 작단이 자주 있을 것이지만 돈에 매달리는 것이 싫어서... 이 정도에 만족한다. 믿거나 말거나.

2016 년 들어서 주식시장이 예상 외로 떨어졌다. 뭐라고 이유를 대는고 하니, 미국의 '쉐일오일'(Shale Oil)이 소비량을 초과해서 생산됐기 때문이라고. 그런데 '싸우디'가 생산량을 줄이지 않겠다고 발표했던 바라 세계적 산유량이 지나치게 넘쳐난다고 해서 정유생산업체가 곤혹을 당하면서 상당수가 파산했고 대기업조차 조업을 중단했었다.

엎친데 덮친 격으로 중국경제가 하향하고 있다고 곁들려 바람을 넣다가 보니 미국 내지 전 세계시장이 곤두박질을 하고 있었다. 최근 몇주에 야금야금 원래의 자리로 기어오르고 있는 현상에 내가 사놨던 광산회사도 덩달아 올랐고, 앞으로도 오를 것으로 예상된다. 하지만 급격한 상승이 있은 후에는 다시 주춤하는 것이 주식시장의 동향인 고로 일단 손을 빼고 떨어지기를 기다린다.

내 얘기는 경제의 움직임은 주식시장에 나타나는 현상으로 그 경기의 동향을 가늠 하는데, 앞의 두가지 요인, 즉 기름값과 중국경제에 영향으로 이와같은 하락을 경험하게 됐다는 것을 말하는 바다.

그 러면 기름값이 앞으로 어떻게 움직일 것인 가를 미리 짐작함으로써 주식값도 같이 움직이지 않겠나 하는 거지. 미국의 경제전문가로써 Goldman Sacks투자금융회사를 알아모시는데, 이 사람들이 하는 말이 앞으로 2년 정도까지는 그동안에 문제되었던 공급과잉이 수요와 맞떨어지게 될 것으로 예상하고 있다는 이바구...

그런 얘기가 아래에 영문기사로 쓰여있읍메. 제목을 [싸우디의 숙적은 '쉐일오일만이 아니다]라 했는데 미국의 쉐일오일이 문제가 아니라 현재 생산돼 있는 재고량이 넘처나 있는 것이 오일값은 내려누루고 있다고. 그것이 다 소진되는 2년 후까지는 기름값이 더 오르기가 힘들고 주식값도 그렁 저렁 제 자리를 하지 않겠나 하는 겁니다요. [해석해드리면 좋겠오 마는, 주식하는 냥반들도 많지 않고 경제문제에 관심 둔 분들도 많이 않은 걸로 아로 내 수고를 절약하고자 함을 양해해주시면 좋겠고만.]

Zen

------------------

[Shale Oil Isn't Saudi Arabia's Only Nemesis]

Even if Saudi Arabia wins its struggle with U.S. shale producers over market share, it will face a new billion-barrel adversary.

QuickTake Oil Prices (좌표를 보고자 하면 윗제목을 Google하시라.)

It won’t be regional nemesis Iran, a resurgent Iraq or long-standing competitor Russia. The answer will be more prosaic: Even when overproduction ends, a stockpile surplus of more than 1 billion barrels built up since 2014 will remain, weighing on prices. Inventories will keep accumulating until the end of 2017, the International Energy Agency forecasts, and clearing the glut could take years.

“We may get to the end of the year, and even though supply and demand are in balance, the market shrugs and says ‘So what?’ because it’s waiting for proof of inventory draw-downs,” said Mike Wittner, head of oil markets at Societe Generale SA in New York. “Moving from stock-builds to balance might not be enough.”

Since it was unveiled in late 2014, Saudi Arabia’s strategy to bring the world’s oversupplied oil markets back into balance by squeezing competitors with lower prices has proved grueling, dragging crude down to less than $30 a barrel last month. While a gradual decline in U.S. production signals supply will stop growing, the second act of the process may prove the longest as stockpiles slowly contract.

For a historical precedent, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. points to the oil glut that developed in 1998 to 1999 as demand plunged in the wake of the Asian financial crisis. Crude prices kept falling even as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries made output cuts in March and then June of 1998, slipping below $10 a barrel in London in December of that year. It wasn’t until stockpiles in developed economies started dropping in early 1999 that the recovery took shape.

Between late 2014, when developed-world stockpiles were at about average levels, and the end of this year, global inventories will have swelled by about 1.1 billion barrels, IEA data shows. Another 37 million will be added in 2017. Taking the agency’s projections for how quickly inventories will then fall, and estimates from Energy Aspects Ltd. that 290 million barrels will flow into China’s strategic reserves, it will take until 2021 to clear what’s accumulated.

The latest data from the American Petroleum Institute show the build-up in the U.S. is only getting bigger, with the nation’s crude stockpiles ballooning by 9.9 million barrels last week. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were little changed at $34.38 a barrel at 12:03 p.m. in New York.

“For the previous eight quarters to this one, we have had global implied stock-builds, so we have accumulated a lot of oil,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity markets strategy at BNP Paribas SA in London. “It’s going to take a lot of time to work out that excess oil from the system.”

Missing Barrels (좌표를 보고자 하면 윗제목을 Google하시라.)

Inventories could erode as early as this summer because the decline in U.S. shale output will probably be steeper than is widely assumed, according to Vienna-based consultants JBC Energy GmbH, which predicts prices could rebound to $50 a barrel in June. Much of the surplus the IEA estimates accumulated in the fourth quarter of 2015 hasn’t actually appeared in storage, suggesting the excess is smaller than thought, Standard Chartered Plc says.

“The most likely explanation for the majority of the missing barrels is simply that they do not exist” and are the “result of underestimation of demand and overestimation of supply,” said Paul Horsnell, head of commodities research at Standard Chartered. “They imply that the global market will swing back into deficit well before consensus.”

Saudi Arabia repeated last week that it won’t speed up the re-balancing process by reducing its own supply. While the kingdom and some other OPEC members have agreed with Russia to freeze output at January levels, a coordinated cut is “not happening,” Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said at the IHS CERAWeek conference in Houston on Feb. 23.

Inventories started to swell in 2014 as the wave of supply unleashed by the U.S. shale oil boom, coupled with other new output, outpaced growth in global oil demand by a factor of three. The pile-up continued in 2015 as OPEC members like Saudi Arabia and Iraq raised production to defend their share of world markets. Tanks are poised to fill even more as Iran -- freed as of last month from international sanctions -- pushes new exports into a market that’s already saturated.

The time it will take to use up what’s sitting in tanks around the world adds to Goldman Sachs’s confidence in its prediction, by now an oil-industry mantra, that prices will stay “lower for longer.”

“The market will have a hard time trading higher once supply and demand shift into a deficit as the inventory overhang will likely act as a drag until stock levels are normalized,” said Jeff Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs in New York.
2016-03-04 13:34:47


이 블로그의 인기글