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좋은 때가 지속되면 나쁜 때가 반드시 온다
10/11/2018 06:27
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2008년의 금융파탄 이래로 미국은 10년 가까이 호황기를 누려왔다. 연준 은행장이었던 '버낭케'의 과감한 통화와 신용팽창의 덕분이다. 작으만치 3 trillion에 해당하는 공채를 재무부로 하여금 발행토록 해서 미국자본주의가 망하느냐 마느냐 하는 위기를 용케 넘겼다. 


은행에 넘처나는 돈을 0%의 이자율을 내린 결과로 기업인들은 거의 공짜로 기업활동을 재개했고, 일반인들은 2-3%의 모게지로 부랴부랴 집장만에 나섰던 몇년 만에 경제가 정상적으로 움직이다 못해 미국 역사상 가장 긴 10년의 호황기를 즐겨왔던 바다. 


실업율은 4% 아래로 밑도는 거의 완전고용을 이루었고, 주식시장은 이를 반영하는듯 다우지수가 26,000에 육박하고 있었다. 경제인들은 작년부터 "이처럼 긴 경기는 계속 지속될 수가 없으니 내리막 길이 곧 나설 것을 내다보고 있었다. 하지만 Trump는 자기의 Make America Great Again이란 정책이 주효했던 거라고 호언장담해왔다.


연준행장인 Jerome Powel로서는 10년 전에 뿌려진 과대신용팽창을 좌시하지 못할 처지에 있기 때문에 몇일 전에 이자율을 금년들어서 3번째로 올렸더니 Trump가 '지금 잘 나가는데 찬물을 끼언지 말라'는 쪼의 불평을 터트렸다. 이미 두번째가 되겠는데 FRB(Federal Reserve Bank:연방준비은행)가 하는 일을 집권자가 잔소리 하지 못하게 돼있다만, 그로서는 하여간에 말을 해야했다.


그래서 어제 1차로 주식이 왕창(3.15%) 떨어졌었고, 지금 시간(아침 6시:가주)에서 30분 후에는 더 하락할 것으로 예상한다. 지금 인도네시아의 Bali에서 세계 경제관리들이 모여서 회의를 하고 있는 차에 앞으로의 경기하락에 관한 의견이 이렇게 모아지고 있다고.


첫째가 중국의 과도한 '그림자 융자'가 문제란다. 엎친데 덮친 격으로 미국과의 무역전쟁이 더욱 불길한 기운을 조장하고 있다고.


Credit fueled China’s rapid rise as an economic power. Lately, Beijing has been taking steps to slow the rate of corporate debt growth, but total debt outside the banking sector continued to rise last year and remains on an unsustainable path, according to the IMF.


The odds are against a soft landing. Of 43 cases of rapid growth in debt-to-GDP similar to China’s, only five ended without a major slowdown or financial crisis, according to the fund. Many economists still think Beijing has several factors in its favor, including a strong current-account position and room to ramp up government spending. But the trade war with the U.S. could force China to slow its debt reduction, driving financial risks even higher.


이번의 FRB의 이자율 상승이 개발도상국들에게 이자부담을 더 높여서 알젠틴이나 터키같은 나라들에게 악영향을 주고 있고,


Emerging Markets


Interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve coupled with a rising greenback have sent shock waves through emerging markets, making it harder for companies that borrowed in dollars to pay their debts. Argentina is borrowing $57 billion from the IMF, the largest in the fund’s history, to stem the nation’s currency crisis. The Turkish lira plunged as investors questioned the ability of Recep Erdogan’s administration to contain inflation.


“Emerging markets that are over-leveraged on U.S. dollar debt and large oil importers are probably the most vulnerable,” said Hak Bin Chua, senior economist at Maybank Kim Eng in Hong Kong.


Some emerging markets, such as Mexico and Colombia, have avoided being sucked into the maelstrom. But as central banks raise interest rates, investors may not be so discerning.


“Emerging-market risks will likely be confined to idiosyncratic cases, but the potential for contagion is there,” said Mark Sobel, former U.S. executive director at the IMF and now U.S. chairman of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum.


기업들의 그동안에 누적돼온 빚더미가 시한폭탄으로 작용될 것이 우려되고,


Corporate Debt


Surging private debt has been the driving force behind the steady rise of global debt since 1950, according to the IMF. In the last crisis, U.S. household debt was the ticking time bomb. Consumers have since tightened their belts, but U.S. companies have picked up the slack.


Taking advantage of low rates and strong demand, American companies have issued record amounts of debt, pushing key debt ratios to near 30-year highs, according to Morgan Stanley chief cross-asset strategist Andrew Sheets.


It may be harder for the world to respond this time to turbulence, because central banks still haven’t raised rates back to normal levels, leaving them less ammunition if and when they need to provide stimulus, said Jerome Jean Haegeli, group chief economist at Swiss Re Institute.


10년간에 지속돼온 호경기가 계속될 수가 없다는 우려와


Crisis Survivors


In some advanced economies, housing prices never crashed despite the 2008 crisis, and the buildup of household debt is now raising red flags. In its latest global financial stability report, the IMF put Australia, Canada and Nordic countries in this category. Australia’s 27 years of recession-free economic growth helped fuel a property boom with Sydney house prices leaping fivefold. National prices are now in decline and have fallen for 12 straight months.


유로국가들 중에 병든 이태리의 지나친 빚놀음이 여타 Euro Zone국가들에게 피해를 줄 것이 예상되고,


Italy, Euro Zone


The risk of an ugly exit from the euro zone has a new name: Quitaly.


Fears that Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte will push debt to unsustainable levels by bloating the nation’s budget deficit have driven up Italian bond yields to levels not seen since the euro debt crisis.


Italy’s public debt tops 2 trillion euros, more than any other European Union country and the equivalent of around 130 percent of its economy. Its government though is planning a wider budget deficit next year, a push which has taken a toll on its bond and equity markets.


오일값이 다시 $100 線으로 껑충 뛸 가능성이 엿보이는 바 India, China, Taiwan, Chile, Turkey, Egypt and Ukraine 등의 나라들에게 큰 부담을 안겨줄 경우에 수출국들에게는 좋은 일이나 이들이 오일을 사드리려면 딸라를 사용하는 고로 높아지는 이자율을 감당하기 어려울 것이고,


Oil


Rising crude prices are stirring talk of a return to $100 per barrel for the first time since 2014, hitting countries that rely heavily on imports, including India, China, Taiwan, Chile, Turkey, Egypt and Ukraine. Prices have gained more than 15 percent since mid-August and oil traded above $74 a barrel in New York on Wednesday.


While higher prices is a positive for exporters, paying more for oil will put even more pressure on emerging markets vulnerable to rising U.S. interest rates.


영국이 Euro Zone에서 내년 3월에 이탈하면서 생길 자금경핍이 영국경제에게 악영향을 미칠 것이 예상된다고. 따라서 영국의 중앙은행은 미리 대비해야 한다고.


Bad Brexit


Markets are bracing for the risk that the U.K. won’t reach a deal on the terms of its divorce from the EU -- causing a disorderly exit at the end of March, when Britain is scheduled to leave. The fallout could be ugly for the financial sector: British banks will lose their “passport” rights in the EU, which may force them to beef up capital, for example. The IMF is warning central banks to stand ready to provide emergency liquidity.


ⓒ2018 Bloomberg L.P.


禪涅槃


2018-10-11 05:37:29



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